A Steady Hand in a Shifting Market: Why Buyers Are Looking Beyond the Headlines

The property market might be stuck in a holding pattern nationally, but not every region is following the same script. Cotality’s October Housing Chart Pack reveals a market of contrasts, with some regions continuing to record growth while others navigate further value declines.

For savvy buyers, that creates opportunity. And for SM Property, the data reflects what we're seeing across our own sales: first home buyers and people relocating, whether to a new city or a new home, remain the driving force behind demand.

Christchurch Leads the Way

While national property values fell 1.3% over the three months to September, Christchurch was the only major centre to record growth over that period, with values rising 0.3%. It also recorded 3.4% annual growth, outperforming the other main centres.

Compare that with Auckland, where values fell 1.8% over three months and 3.2% annually, or Wellington, down 2.1% over three months.

Christchurch may not command the highest property prices in the country, but its relative historic stability is a strength. Cotality's data shows Christchurch has experienced the smallest peak-to-current decline of the main centres, at just 1.2%, compared with Wellington's 27.7%.

First Home Buyers Are Making Their Move

First home buyers accounted for a record 29.5% of property purchases nationally in the third quarter of 2026, surpassing the previous record of 28.3% in the second quarter.

Furthermore, first home buyers and people relocating together account for 53.7% of our buyers, reinforcing the importance of helping people find homes that suit their next chapter.

With more properties available and less pressure to compete in a fast-moving market, buyers have greater scope to compare options, ask the right questions and negotiate favourable terms.

Opportunity Favours the Prepared

National sales activity remains subdued, with 6,519 property transactions in September, down 13.6% year-on-year. Meanwhile, 28,529 properties were listed for sale nationally, above the five-year average of 27,258.

More choice means buyers can take the time to carry out thorough due diligence, compare locations and weigh up the long-term value of a property. The best opportunity isn't always the lowest asking price; sometimes it's the ability to negotiate a better deal without the time pressure of a red-hot market.

A Market Worth Watching

Tauranga also recorded modest annual value growth of 1.0% and while the Cotality Monthly Report does not dive deeper into Central Otago, Dunedin was up 2.1% indicative of growth in the region, showing that opportunities aren't confined to one region.

The message is clear: national headlines don't tell the whole story. Regional performance varies, buyer priorities are evolving, and a considered approach can make all the difference.

Whether you're buying your first home, relocating or exploring your next property investment, understanding the local market is key. At SM Property, we're here to help you navigate the numbers, assess your options and make your next move with confidence.

Source: Cotality Monthly NZ Housing Chart Pack, October 2026. SM Property buyer data reflects the proportion of our buyers who are first home buyers or relocating (read more)

Disclaimer: This article is intended for general information purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal or property advice. Market data and commentary are based on Cotality's October 2026 Housing Chart Pack and are subject to change. Past market performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Readers should undertake their own due diligence and seek independent professional advice before making property or investment decisions.